British government admits key estimate of AI's economic benefit came from a report commissioned by Google
The British government cited an estimate of £400 billion in AI benefit by 2030 for almost two years, originating from a 2023 report commissioned by Google. The minister has now published the government's own estimate: £120 billion (range £55-140 billion).
UK AI minister Kanishka Narayan, responding to a parliamentary question, admitted that the £400 billion estimate the British government had repeatedly cited for almost two years as AI's benefit to the economy does not come from the government's own analysis, but from a 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by the consultancy Public First (now PF Global). The government's own estimate, which the minister stated, is £55 to 140 billion by 2030 with a central value of £120 billion — roughly a third of the originally cited figure. Narayan also noted that even this newer estimate is "highly uncertain."
According to Wired's findings, the government and individual departments used the Google-funded figure under two different governments for almost two years, even though the lower, government-produced estimate had been available since at least November 2025. Skills England, the agency responsible for apprenticeship training, continued publishing the older figure for a further four months. According to Wired, Narayan's answer is the first documented instance of the government placing both figures side by side or stating that Google had commissioned the report; the original £400 billion estimate was never formally withdrawn or labelled incorrect.
PF Global explained the discrepancy by saying that the actual pace of AI adoption within government was slower than their 2023 model had assumed, and that their view of the technology's overall potential had not changed. MP Chi Onwurah, chair of the parliamentary Science, Innovation and Technology Committee, warned that overstating benefits undermines trust in the arguments for digital transformation of public services. Sumedha Deshmukh of the Ada Lovelace Institute added that similarly precise-looking AI figures often embed the assumptions and interests of the research's commissioning party, and called on the government to stress-test such estimates, fund independent research, and verify whether the promises are actually being delivered.
Why it matters
The case shows that publicly cited economic figures on AI benefits can originate from reports funded by the very tech companies that profit from AI adoption, without this being apparent from how the figures are subsequently circulated. For policymaking and corporate strategy alike, this means that adopting "round" estimates without checking the source and underlying assumptions can lead to decisions built on a distorted foundation.
Relevant practical impact
What this means
For a business
Companies that rely on external economic estimates of AI benefits when planning AI investments or for communication risk basing their numbers on figures influenced by the interests of the research's commissioning party, rather than on independent analysis.
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Event sources
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